Not “wrong” but I actually think tech will proceed with a reckoning of sorts. I think there’s a generational shift around tech and convenience. I think inconvenience is going to make a huge comeback: swapping Amazon prime for know your local grocer and bookseller, ditching social media for book clubs and sewing classes at scale, ditching streaming services for DVDs and mp3 collections.
I also think we are going to see a backlash with AI investment. It’ll be a stock the likes of oil and guns. Incredible growth but terrible for our species. AI divestment isn’t far off, especially when AI will be held privatized by a few rich people calling the shots.
I would love that, but the explosive growth of Xiaohongshu as a possible alternative to TikTok and then both Biden and Trump trying to figure a way to keep TikTok going makes me think there's still a lot of demand out there for harmful social media. I think it's great that the youth are drinking less alcohol, though I imagine the screens are doing even more damage.
And I agree with you about AI. I don't know about divestment because so many people will get rich off stocks. But I agree with Casey Newton's prediction of an AI Culture War that will likely lead to a congressional hearing similar to the ones we saw on social media:
"The AI culture war begins. The first Trump presidency was defined by near-daily tantrums from conservatives alleging bias in social networks, culminating in a series of profoundly stupid hearings and no new laws. Look for these tantrums (and hearings) to return next year, as Republicans in Congress begin to scrutinize the center-left values of the leading chatbots and demand “neutrality” in artificial intelligence."
Great thoughts on 2025 David, thanks for sharing them! On AI I'm having a hard time deciding whether the AI hype-beasts can be believed and that the technology is going to transform the world in short order, OR if this is another crypto-like craze where the other 99.5% of the population are right to be skeptical and write it off. I personally believe the former, but its hard to fully trust the folks with clear bias for it's success.
It's going to be hard to measure achievement on these goals as written, but maybe that was the intent :)
For me, the differences between AI hype and crypto hype come down to usefulness. I use Claude and ChatGPT countless times throughout the day, and they've made me at least 2x more productive in my work, learning, and research ... I've even gotten back into coding, which I never thought would happen. Whereas I don't have a single use-case for crypto other than speculative gambling.
Also, AI has made consistent advances over the past five years even if the exponential growth of the scaling laws is starting to slow. Whereas with crypto ... there haven't been any meaningful advances to be hyped about.
And yes, actual measurable predictions coming soon. :) Thanks for reading.
Not “wrong” but I actually think tech will proceed with a reckoning of sorts. I think there’s a generational shift around tech and convenience. I think inconvenience is going to make a huge comeback: swapping Amazon prime for know your local grocer and bookseller, ditching social media for book clubs and sewing classes at scale, ditching streaming services for DVDs and mp3 collections.
I also think we are going to see a backlash with AI investment. It’ll be a stock the likes of oil and guns. Incredible growth but terrible for our species. AI divestment isn’t far off, especially when AI will be held privatized by a few rich people calling the shots.
I would love that, but the explosive growth of Xiaohongshu as a possible alternative to TikTok and then both Biden and Trump trying to figure a way to keep TikTok going makes me think there's still a lot of demand out there for harmful social media. I think it's great that the youth are drinking less alcohol, though I imagine the screens are doing even more damage.
And I agree with you about AI. I don't know about divestment because so many people will get rich off stocks. But I agree with Casey Newton's prediction of an AI Culture War that will likely lead to a congressional hearing similar to the ones we saw on social media:
https://www.platformer.news/2025-tech-predictions-ai-google-threads-bluesky/
"The AI culture war begins. The first Trump presidency was defined by near-daily tantrums from conservatives alleging bias in social networks, culminating in a series of profoundly stupid hearings and no new laws. Look for these tantrums (and hearings) to return next year, as Republicans in Congress begin to scrutinize the center-left values of the leading chatbots and demand “neutrality” in artificial intelligence."
Great thoughts on 2025 David, thanks for sharing them! On AI I'm having a hard time deciding whether the AI hype-beasts can be believed and that the technology is going to transform the world in short order, OR if this is another crypto-like craze where the other 99.5% of the population are right to be skeptical and write it off. I personally believe the former, but its hard to fully trust the folks with clear bias for it's success.
It's going to be hard to measure achievement on these goals as written, but maybe that was the intent :)
For me, the differences between AI hype and crypto hype come down to usefulness. I use Claude and ChatGPT countless times throughout the day, and they've made me at least 2x more productive in my work, learning, and research ... I've even gotten back into coding, which I never thought would happen. Whereas I don't have a single use-case for crypto other than speculative gambling.
Also, AI has made consistent advances over the past five years even if the exponential growth of the scaling laws is starting to slow. Whereas with crypto ... there haven't been any meaningful advances to be hyped about.
And yes, actual measurable predictions coming soon. :) Thanks for reading.